Posted: Jun 17, 2020
US wine volume sales look set to be flat in 2020 with the Covid-19 led surge in off-trade sales balancing out the drop in on-trade sales, according to new Wine Intelligence research.
Released today and based on consumer insights data collected during March and April, the report suggests that off-trade sales volumes will grow by around 10% year-on-year, while on-trade volumes are expected to fall 29%.
The research, which is based on IWSR, Nielsen and Wines & Vines Analytics data, assumes no second wave of Covid-19 infections hitting the US in the second half of 2020.
Even if assuming a second virus wave with a lockdown in October and November, the picture still looks relatively positive in the circumstances, with Wine Intelligence suggesting a decline of around 2-3% in total wine volumes, with the on-trade seeing a year-on-year decline of closer to 50%.
Wine intelligence said it had decided not to include a specific prediction on change in dollar value of the market, citing there were too many variables to consider and that industry estimates about on-trade sales value vary widely.
However, the researchers noted that the implications of a switch from higher value on-premise product to mainstream priced off-premise product would lead to a “significant” value decline in the US market this year, even though overall volumes are predicted to remain stable.
By Lisa Riley
June 16, 2020
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